We all see different things in different objects.  Data though – data is supposed to be cold hard facts.  You’re not supposed to be able to twist data around for your perverted pleasure.

So.  The other day, I made mention of a Forbes article which points to over-inflated property values in the Outer Sunset district. 

And today, I read the news from the National Association of Realtors.  The article is aimed at REALTORS – NOT at the general public. 

Their take on the SAME data that Forbes provided?

That the Outer Sunset is a Neighborhood Where the Bubble Hasn’t Burst!

Pardon my French but WTF?

Two completely different viewpoints taken from the EXACT same data.

The article from REALTOR.org reads:

In a report for Forbes.com, Hotpads.com, an aggregator of rental listings, produced a price-to-earnings spread for each ZIP code in the country’s 40 largest cities by comparing rental costs with buying costs for similar properties, based on number of bedrooms, location, and price per square foot.

A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, expresses how much a buyer has to pay for each dollar of return. Buyers in high P/E neighborhoods pay a huge premium to live in the area relative to how much it costs to rent a similar property there.

A high P/E can simply mean a neighborhood is overpriced, but it can also indicate where buyers have gambled that the area will ultimately appreciate further, turning an overpaying buyer into a smart investor.

I added the emphasis – because this is where I get thrown for a loop.

So?  Which is it?   

Well – I’m not sure.  Frankly, even I’m confused. 

And each party has different motives. 

There’s no denying that bad news sells.  Is Forbes manipulating the data?

And there’s no denying that if consumer confidence falls further, real estate prices will continue to fall.  So it the National Association of Realtors trying to spin Forbes article to make things look more peachy-keen?

My verdict?  It’s a combination of both.  And neither.  The real answer is that NO ONE HAS THE ANSWER. 

If you need to buy a home, and plan to stay AT LEAST 5–7 years, then chill out.  You’ll be allright.  Prices will appreciate enough to make up for any market slowdown that’s going on now. 

But if you are looking to buy for the short term – then stop and back away from the mortgage.  I can’t think of one good reason to buy unless you like throwing away your hard earned money. 

Want more answers?  Contact me.  I’ll try to walk you through it.  But as you can clearly see – no one has a crystal ball, and even data doesn’t give us enough insight for us to draw any real conclusions.

I just received the Taraval Police Station Crime Report For Wednesday, July 30, 2008.  And I have to say, this particular incident gave me a chuckle.  I’m guessing the commentary at the end was Captain Chignell’s addition. 

07/30/08        1:55 am                                        12th and Irving

A woman looked out her window and observed a man driving a car, crash into a parked car, stumble out of his vehicle, start arguing with his passenger, and then get into the car and drive one block away but then stop again as his vehicle was inoperable. The woman called the police with Officers Jordan King and Justin Erb arriving on the scene. The officers made contact with the driver, who was quite inebriated. He stated that he had not been driving at all and that he was feeling “euphoric”. The suspect, who lives on the 1400 block of 48th Avenue, failed field sobriety and chemical tests. He was arrested for drunk driving and hit & run. His euphoria may have dissipated.

Case #080795518

To get your own copy of the Crime Report, email the captain and request one. 

As I was checking out the local San Francisco blogs, an unfortunate  blog post caught my eye.  Curbed SF happened to comment on an article from Forbes that listed the Outer Sunset District as the 6^th most overpriced zip code in the country.  Not cool.

Outer Sunset residents – don’t fret.  If you bought your home five years ago, you should be fine.  But if you bought your home recently, you might be in trouble.  If you need some advice as to the value of your home, contact me.  Otherwise, here’s the bad news from Forbes.

…the country’s most overpriced areas are ZIP codes like San Francisco’s Outer Sunset neighborhood, 94122, which, given its location near the Pacific Ocean and on the south side of Golden Gate Park, was during the most recent boom widely thought to be up-and-coming. Median prices surged from $560,000 in June of 2003 to a peak of $771,000 in March of 2008, based on Trulia.com price data drawn from California’s multiple-listing service.

Sometimes, however, betting on price appreciation doesn’t quite work out, and when markets start to soften, speculative areas are often the first to take a hit.

San Francisco as a whole has declined 6% over the last year, but prices in the Outer Mission have declined 10%, dropping to $692,000. Based on asking prices and asking rents, though, the market still has a way to fall before reaching equilibrium.

Investors and homeowners in the other nine neighborhoods on our list are likely hoping for immunity from this trend.

SNBC’s Annual National Night Out Community BBQ is back!

Join your friends, neighbors and members of the Sunset community at this FREE community celebration. Free food and music will be provided!

When: Tuesday, August 5, 2008
5:00 – 7:00 PM

Where: Sunset Neighborhood Beacon Center
3925 Noriega Street @ 46th Avenue

For more information, contact Darrow by email or by calling (415) 694-1287.

Hope to see you there!

What a week.  Some of you readers know I’m a REALTOR, some don’t. 

As a REALTOR, I’ve started a fabulous new SF real estate newsletter that features new listings, recently sold listings, pocket listings (San Francisco properties that are NOT on the market to the public, but are available to The City Update(TM) readers, San Francisco real estate market updates, charts, reports, and all sorts of rants and raves written by yours truly.

I’ve been working the last few kinks out the the new system that will keep the New on Market and Recently sold data that I provide to readers of The City Update(TM) under virtual lock and key. 

And – after a long and hard battle, I’ve persevered, and am once again providing The City Update(TM) readers with all of the secret MLS data. 

Feeling left out? Sign up by going to the site.

Oh – and have an awesome weekend!

I just got this scoop on this beach clean-up from the folks at Thrillist.

Clean up Ocean Beach and get rewarded with food, libations and music for all of your hard work!

Barefoot Wine Beach Rescue Project

Jul 26, 3-5pm at Ocean Beach/5:30-7:30pm at the Beach Chalet

1000 Great Hwy, at Ocean Beach

The Sunset
415.386.8439

This Saturday, hit OB for a Surfrider/Barefoot sponsored, 2hr beach clean that’ll be immediately followed by a free-wine Beach Chalet bash featuring everything from cab sauv to bubbly white zin, “beach treats” like grilled salmon BLTs and hangar steak skewers, and live music from Tristan Prettyman — who would have been a very pretty man indeed, if she wasn’t a chick.

A client (and neighbor) of mine and all around good guy just sent me this invitation, and I am trying to help spread the word! 

And yes, I know that the event is in Pacifica and not in The Avenues – but the the event sponsor is local, and hell, it’s in support of our neighbors that call the area Pacific Ocean “HOME!”

The the event will be fun and even if your closest brush with the ocean was the time you accidentally got your shoes wet running from the waves, I’m sure you’ll agree, the cause is a good one.

Here’s the scoop!

On July 26 & 27 Nor-Cal Surf Shop will host a Marine Mammal Surf Festival/Surf Contest to raise awareness of the mass slaughtering of dolphins and whales around the globe.
 
All money raised will be given back to Dave Rastovich’s non-profit organization Surfers for Cetaceans (S4C).

The winning team brings home the trophy to display for one year…

So, we need your help! - Please join the SurfAddict team and help us bring the trophy home. 

 

You can either compete or help sponsor our riders - any contributions greatly appreciated.   

Nor Cal Surf Shop

5460 Coast Highway, Pacifica, CA 94044

(650) 738-9283

 

 

www.norcalsurfshop.stores.yahoo.net/marine.html

       or
Send an Email

Carmen Chu’s office rocks.  Oh wait, did I say I’m not endorsing any candidates?  I did.  And while Carman doesn’t have my official endorsement, I’ve been impressed by a lot of things she’s done. 

Her level of interaction with the community is awesome and she has embraced technology in ways that other candidates haven’t, including emailing her community newsletter to her constituents.  

And now - I’ve got one more reason to be impressed:

FREE tickets from Supervisor Carmen Chu’s Office to the de Young Museum on Sunday, July 27th.

If you are interested in participating in this free museum day and live in District 4 (Sunset), please contact Supervisor Carmen Chu’s Office and the first 200 to respond will receive free admission to the de Young.
Please wait for confirmation from our office and further details on how to claim your tickets.

TICKETS WILL NOT BE MAILED TO PEOPLE - THEY MUST BE PICKED UP ON THE FREE MUSEUM DAY - JULY 27 between 10:00 - 10:30am.

There will be a welcome reception with Supervisor Chu on the free museum day for ticket recipients at 10:30am at the Piazoni Room near Woolsey Court. The de Young Museum is open on Sunday from 9:30am to 5:15pm.

By Email:
Send an email to chustaff@sfgov.org
Subject line: de Young
Include in email: Your first and last name, phone number, home address and number of tickets you are requesting

By Phone
Call (415) 554-7460

If you are leaving a voicemail, please make sure to include your name and contact information.

It seems that The Avenues Blog has come to the attention of all kinds of local politicians running for office.  Since The Avenues Blog likes all the attention it can get, I’ll be kind enough to go ahead and post the latest updates from the local candidates.

Sue Lee is running for Richmond Supervisor and we are having our campaign kick off rally this Saturday July 26th at 1pm at the Richmond District Neighborhood Center on 30th Ave and Balboa. I would love if you could post this information for your readers in the Richmond.

DONE! 

And a little something from Rachel Norton, a school board candidate:

I am a public school parent, co-chair of the parent organization at Argonne Elementary in the Richmond District, and active in Parents for Public Schools and the Community Advisory Committee for Special Education. My husband and I and our two daughters live in the Richmond District. I am sure you haven’t had much opportunity to look at the school board races yet but when you do, take a look at my web site: http://www.rachelnorton.com/.

There.  I’ve done my civic duty.  As a reminder - the fact that I post candidate’s info here is in no way, shape or form an endorsement, just in case you thought it was.

Just a little note that this IS NOT an endorsement - but just an information only posting.

I have opened a campaign office at 2239 Taraval between 32nd & 33rd Avenue. We will be having an open house on Saturday, July 19th from 10:00 to 4:00. Come by and bring your friends.