Pardon the dust.  We’ve been having some troubles here at the The Avenues Blog.  Techinical difficulties have started creeping into our midst, so we are going on a bit of a hiatus while we exterminate the bugs, do some upgrading, and maybe, just maybe come back with an all new rockin’ design for the blog. 

In the meantime, if you need to get your SF real estate fix – sign up for The City Update(TM) – San Francisco’s Friendliest Newsletter!

See you in a few weeks!  And if you miss me – call me at 415–307–1392 or email me.

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I’m always looking for ways to get future San Francisco home buyers information on how to buy a home. 

And this here is a FANTASTIC resource for first time home buyers in whether you want to live in the Sunset District, the Richmond District, or anywhere in SF! 

The San Francisco Affordable Homeownership Steering Committee invites you…

What: 4th Annual San Francisco Homeownership Fair
Who:  New Homebuyers & Existing Homeowners
When: Saturday, September 6, 2008, 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
Where: St. Mary’s Cathedral at 111 Gough Street, San Francisco
Why:  To learn the key steps for becoming a homeowner in San Francisco and important information for current homeowners. 

• Meet and talk with representatives from over 40 different organizations all dedicated to increasing access to affordable homeownership opportunities in San Francisco.  Exhibitors include the Mayor’s Office of Housing, SF Redevelopment Agency, Lending Institutions, Real Estate Professionals, Housing Counseling Agencies, and many others.
• Workshops include:First-time Homeownership Opportunities, How to Access Special Government Programs for First-Time Homebuyers, and Current Homeownership Market
• Most classes will be taught by local housing counseling agencies in three languages (Spanish, English and Cantonese). 
• Door prizes, giveaways, and entertainment for the whole family!

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We all see different things in different objects.  Data though – data is supposed to be cold hard facts.  You’re not supposed to be able to twist data around for your perverted pleasure.

So.  The other day, I made mention of a Forbes article which points to over-inflated property values in the Outer Sunset district. 

And today, I read the news from the National Association of Realtors.  The article is aimed at REALTORS – NOT at the general public. 

Their take on the SAME data that Forbes provided?

That the Outer Sunset is a Neighborhood Where the Bubble Hasn’t Burst!

Pardon my French but WTF?

Two completely different viewpoints taken from the EXACT same data.

The article from REALTOR.org reads:

In a report for Forbes.com, Hotpads.com, an aggregator of rental listings, produced a price-to-earnings spread for each ZIP code in the country’s 40 largest cities by comparing rental costs with buying costs for similar properties, based on number of bedrooms, location, and price per square foot.

A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, expresses how much a buyer has to pay for each dollar of return. Buyers in high P/E neighborhoods pay a huge premium to live in the area relative to how much it costs to rent a similar property there.

A high P/E can simply mean a neighborhood is overpriced, but it can also indicate where buyers have gambled that the area will ultimately appreciate further, turning an overpaying buyer into a smart investor.

I added the emphasis – because this is where I get thrown for a loop.

So?  Which is it?   

Well – I’m not sure.  Frankly, even I’m confused. 

And each party has different motives. 

There’s no denying that bad news sells.  Is Forbes manipulating the data?

And there’s no denying that if consumer confidence falls further, real estate prices will continue to fall.  So it the National Association of Realtors trying to spin Forbes article to make things look more peachy-keen?

My verdict?  It’s a combination of both.  And neither.  The real answer is that NO ONE HAS THE ANSWER. 

If you need to buy a home, and plan to stay AT LEAST 5–7 years, then chill out.  You’ll be allright.  Prices will appreciate enough to make up for any market slowdown that’s going on now. 

But if you are looking to buy for the short term – then stop and back away from the mortgage.  I can’t think of one good reason to buy unless you like throwing away your hard earned money. 

Want more answers?  Contact me.  I’ll try to walk you through it.  But as you can clearly see – no one has a crystal ball, and even data doesn’t give us enough insight for us to draw any real conclusions.

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As I was checking out the local San Francisco blogs, an unfortunate  blog post caught my eye.  Curbed SF happened to comment on an article from Forbes that listed the Outer Sunset District as the 6^th most overpriced zip code in the country.  Not cool.

Outer Sunset residents – don’t fret.  If you bought your home five years ago, you should be fine.  But if you bought your home recently, you might be in trouble.  If you need some advice as to the value of your home, contact me.  Otherwise, here’s the bad news from Forbes.

…the country’s most overpriced areas are ZIP codes like San Francisco’s Outer Sunset neighborhood, 94122, which, given its location near the Pacific Ocean and on the south side of Golden Gate Park, was during the most recent boom widely thought to be up-and-coming. Median prices surged from $560,000 in June of 2003 to a peak of $771,000 in March of 2008, based on Trulia.com price data drawn from California’s multiple-listing service.

Sometimes, however, betting on price appreciation doesn’t quite work out, and when markets start to soften, speculative areas are often the first to take a hit.

San Francisco as a whole has declined 6% over the last year, but prices in the Outer Mission have declined 10%, dropping to $692,000. Based on asking prices and asking rents, though, the market still has a way to fall before reaching equilibrium.

Investors and homeowners in the other nine neighborhoods on our list are likely hoping for immunity from this trend.

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What a week.  Some of you readers know I’m a REALTOR, some don’t. 

As a REALTOR, I’ve started a fabulous new SF real estate newsletter that features new listings, recently sold listings, pocket listings (San Francisco properties that are NOT on the market to the public, but are available to The City Update(TM) readers, San Francisco real estate market updates, charts, reports, and all sorts of rants and raves written by yours truly.

I’ve been working the last few kinks out the the new system that will keep the New on Market and Recently sold data that I provide to readers of The City Update(TM) under virtual lock and key. 

And – after a long and hard battle, I’ve persevered, and am once again providing The City Update(TM) readers with all of the secret MLS data. 

Feeling left out? Sign up by going to the site.

Oh – and have an awesome weekend!

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Just a little blurb to let you know that I’ve just addes a new market report feature to the blog.

If you just can’t get enough San Francsco real estate market updates between this blog, my San Francisco Real Estate Blog and <a href=”http://www.thecityupdate.com” target=”_blank”>The City Update(TM)</a>, you now have one more option when it comes to getting the latest deets on what the market is doing.

You can narrow down your reports by zip code or property type, and you can sign up for as few or as many zip codes as you like (you just have to reenter your info for each new zip code/property type).

You can sign up in the sidebar on the right or at the bottom of this post!

Go ahead, get your SF real estate data fix on!

Oh – and as always, your info will not be sold, rented, shared, abused, danced on, or in any other way misused.  In fact, you’ll never hear from me unless you contact me directly.  Just thought you’d like to know.

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It’s summer. Seriously! I know it’s overcast and cloudy, but it’s June, and that means the summer real estate buying season is at hand.

And with that in mind, I thought you might enjoy seeing what the real estate market is up to in the Richmond District and Sunset District.  I do this on my other blog, but thought you might appreciate having some local real estate sales info posted for your statistical pleasure. 

So here’s this month’s summary of home sales pulled directly from the MLS. They are broken up between District 1 (mostly Richmond District Homes) and District 2 (mostly Sunset and Parkside District Homes), but these numbers do include the surrounding areas such as Golden Gate Heights for the Sunset or Lone Mountain, etc. for the Richmond.  Also, one thing to note is that, these are all closed sales and not pending sales.

Check back monthly to get the latest facts and figures – and if you have any questions about these statistics, about how homes sales are fairing in your specific neighborhood nook, or the San Francisco real estate market in general, feel free to give me a holler! I’m always happy to talk “real estate!”

Here’s a quick snapshot of the market from May 1, 2008 through May 31, 2008:

DISTRICT 1 HOME SALES (Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, Lake, Lone Mountain, Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Sea Cliff)

Single Family Homes

• 25 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $1,400,000
• Minimum Sale Price was $650,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $14,500,000
• Median Selling Price was 120% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 15
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 104.5% of asking price

Condominiums, Lofts & Co-ops, TIC’s

• 17 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $860,000
• Minimum Sale Price was $575,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $1,608,000
• Median Selling Price was 96% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 49
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 106% of asking price

DISTRICT 2 HOME SALES (Inner Sunset, Central Sunset, Outer Sunset, Inner Parkside, Central Parkside, Outer Parkside, Golden Gate Heights)

Single Family Homes

• 48 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $838,000
• Minimum Sale Price was $550,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $1,900,000
• Median Selling Price was 103.5% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 24
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 102.5% of asking price

Condominiums, Lofts & Co-ops, TIC’s

• 5 Homes Sold
• Median Sale Price was $702,000
• Minimum Sale Price was $505,000
• Maximum Sale Price was $949,000
• Median Selling Price was 96% of asking price
• Median Days on Market was 50
• Median Selling Price for homes that sold within 30 days was 101% of asking price

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Posts about the Sunset District don’t make it to the blogosphere very often – so when I found this one a few days ago, I knew I had to share it with you folks here.

Submedian is a blog written by a real life San Francisco home buyer.  From Submedian’s blog:

I’m a potential buyer with a family in tow. I’m currently preapproved for a loan that would allow me to purchase a median priced home in San Francisco (~$800k), which I guess puts me in the top 12% of income for the city. The problem for me is I can’t really afford either the downpayment (I’m aiming for 10%) or the monthly nut on a median priced home, so I’m focused on homes that are priced less then the median price, hence the name of the blog: submedian.

Now, Submedian’s post on the Sunset homes showed that home prices in the Sunset ain’t doin’ so hot.  A few things to point out before the discussion really takes off is that only 29 single family homes were found in the Sunset – so I’m not sure if the search only took into account Sunset proper, or if it included Parkside, Inner Sunset, Inner Parkside, etc.  In contrast, all of District 2 has 81 single family homes on the market right now.  Inner Sunset, Central Sunset and Outer Sunset combined have 33 single family homes on the market right now, so I’m going to assume it really is JUST the Sunset district proper and run some numbers to see if Submedian’s research rings true.

According to Submedian’s research, “anybody selling a Sunset home purchased within the past five years is showing negative appreciation” and “if you want to sell your house for more then you paid for it, you better have bought your home a decade ago.” 

So – I thought I’d run some numbers and see if his statements are true.  The following are median prices for the last 10 years for the Sunset District.  The number for 2008 is for all closed sales from January 1st of this year through today.

2008 – $835,000 ( 1% ↓)

2007 – $845,500 ( 3% ↑)

2006 – $815,000 ( 2% ↓)

2005 – $830,000 (11% ↑)

2004 – $745,000 (18% ↑)

2003 – $628,000 ( 9% ↑)

2002 – $575,000 ( 6% ↑)

2001 – $538,000 ( 5% ↑)

2000 – $510,000 (27% ↑)

1999 – $400,000 (13% ↑)

1998 – $354,000

 Let’s look at some of the highlights of this list. 

• If you bought your home 10 years ago, your home has appreciated 235%!
• If you bought your home 5 years ago, your home has appreciated 32%!
• Prices over the last 3 years have remained flat!

When I work with clients, I insist that they find a home that they can live in for at least 5 years.  Real estate, save for a few crazy years, has never been a “get rich quick” investment.  I urge people to look at their purchase as a home first and foremost, and then, as an investment that will eventually earn them a nice return. 

If you are looking for a short term investment with guaranteed return, real estate has really never presented that.

But…

If your objective is long term there is very little support for a theory that you will lose in real estate, especially in the San Francisco real estate market.

What about Submedian’s analysis? 

Well – while the premise that “anybody selling a Sunset home purchased within the past five years is showing negative appreciation” is definitely incorrect – because as the real data shows, prices have appreciated 32% over the last five years.  And the slight up/down change in median prices over the last 3 years isn’t really indicative of negative appreciation.  (Of course, if you take into account transfer taxes and all of the other selling costs, you WILL lose money on a home if you bought within the last 3 years and are selling today.  However, you probably saved a hefty amount in taxes, AND you enjoyed the home you lived in without throwing your dough away on rent – and taking those two factors into account, even someone who bought in the last 3 years would likely break even on their investment.)

In a nutshell – the numbers show that while no one in the Sunset has gotten rich in the last few years, they haven’t exactly experienced negative appreciation either.  They have, however, had the opportunity to live in their very own home in one of the City’s best kept secrets (for those that aren’t too wimpy to handle a little fog here and there, that is! )  So if you’re thinking of buying or selling in the Sunset, don’t be afraid to take the next step and talk to a REALTOR.  We can give you an accurate idea of whether your goals are realistic.  And if you don’t already have a REALTOR, give me a holler – I’m happy to talk real estate!

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